Expert: my country's economy will recover steadily in the third and fourth quarters - Chinadaily.com.cn
Although my country is currently facing the impact of the epidemic and external challenges, experts pointed out that with the implementation of a series of government stimulus policies, my country's economy will accelerate growth in the third and fourth quarters and maintain stable operation within a reasonable range.
China is on track for a steady rebound in the third and fourth quarters as policy stimulus takes effect, and renewed COVID-19 outbreaks will be less disruptive to the supply chain, experts said.
Experts say that with the stimulus policies taking effect, China's economy will recover steadily in the third and fourth quarters, and the new round of the epidemic will not have much disruptive impact on the supply chain.
They expect strong fiscal easing — notably in infrastructure spending — to shore up growth, better use of structural monetary tools and more government measures to further stimulate consumption, which will help boost domestic demand and build a strong national market.
Experts expect strong fiscal easing -- especially in infrastructure investment -- to support economic growth, and the government will make better use of structural monetary policy tools and more measures to further stimulate consumption, which will Help stimulate domestic demand and create a strong domestic market.
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, expected the growth to recover to 5 percent in the third and fourth quarters of the year, making a full-year V-shaped rebound.
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, predicts that the growth rate will return to 5% in the third and fourth quarters, and the annual economic growth curve will show a "V-shaped" rebound.
To stabilize overall growth, Luo said it would be advisable to allocate some of the 2023 quota for local government special bonds in advance in the fourth quarter and to increase financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises, technological innovation and green development.
Luo Zhiheng believes that in order to maintain the overall stability of economic growth, part of the special debt quota of local governments in 2023 should be issued in advance in the fourth quarter, and financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises, technological innovation and green development should be increased.
For the second half of 2022, a recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee urged efforts to keep the economy running within an appropriate range and to strive for the best possible outcome.
A meeting recently held by the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed that in the second half of 2022, efforts should be made to keep the economy operating within a reasonable range and strive to achieve the best results.
It was decided that major economically developed provinces should play a leading role and provinces that are able to should strive to meet the objectives set for economic and social development this year.
It was decided at the meeting that the major economic provinces should bravely take the lead, and the qualified provinces should strive to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development.
Zhu Haibin, JPMorgan's chief China economist, said the central government made a "practical" choice to de-emphasize the preset annual GDP growth target of around 5.5 percent in the face of unexpected shocks from COVID-19 and external challenges.
Zhu Haibin, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase China, said that under the sudden impact of the epidemic and external challenges, it is a realistic choice for the central government to downplay the annual GDP growth target of around 5.5%.
Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, said the five coastal provincial regions in southeast China that account for over one-third of China's economy — Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces and Shanghai — will play a key role in stabilizing overall growth.
Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, pointed out that the five provinces and cities along the southeast coast - Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai - whose economic volume accounts for one-third of the country's total will play an important role in stabilizing the overall economic growth.
Local governments across China have recently accelerated measures to boost consumption, a major challenge to the national economy in the second half of the year, for example by encouraging car purchases and issuing consumption vouchers.
Governments across the country have also recently accelerated measures to stimulate consumption, such as encouraging car purchases and issuing consumer coupons. The recovery of the consumer market in the second half of the year is the main challenge facing my country's economy.
China's southwestern Yunnan province has released a plan for boosting consumption and stabilizing growth from 2022 to 2024, requiring efforts to develop online and offline consumption and encourage digital and intelligent transformation of traditional trade enterprises and to build Kunming into an international consumption center.
The Yunnan Provincial Government of China issued the "Yunnan Province Three-Year Action Plan for Promoting Steady Growth in Consumption (2022-2024)", which requires efforts to develop online and offline consumption, encourage traditional business enterprises to transform into digital and intelligent, and build Kunming into an international consumption center.
The northern port city of Tianjin is planning to unveil 20 measures to spur consumption, it said in a recently released document, with major focus on encouraging consumption of cars, housing, home appliances, and cultural tourism as well as stimulating new types of consumption.
Tianjin has introduced 20 new measures to boost consumption, the main content of which is to encourage consumption of automobiles, housing, household appliances and cultural tourism, as well as to cultivate new types of consumption.
Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, Guangdong province, have also unveiled a series of measures, such as holding shopping events and giving out coupons and subsidies.
Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangdong have also introduced a series of measures, such as holding shopping festivals, issuing consumer coupons and subsidies.
Ye Yindan, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said investment will also be a key growth driver.
Ye Yindan, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, pointed out that investment will also be the main driving force for economic growth.
To further spur consumption in the second half, Ye said the government should expand efforts to boost residents' confidence and expectations by beefing up support for the unemployed and low-income groups.
Ye Yindan said that in order to further stimulate consumption in the second half of the year, the government will strive to increase residents' consumer confidence and expectations by increasing support for the unemployed and low-income groups.
She proposed adopting more measures, such as encouraging more promotions and sales on holidays, offering subsidies to buyers of new energy vehicles and green home appliances and easing restrictions on the recovery in services consumption amid COVID-19 outbreaks.
She suggested more measures, such as encouraging more promotions on holidays, providing subsidies to consumers who buy new energy vehicles and green appliances, and relaxing rules that limit the recovery of service consumption during the epidemic.
Looking ahead, Ye said China's economy will likely rebound quarter by quarter as the stimulus policy gradually takes effect, and the country will keep economic performance stable within a reasonable range in the second half.
Looking forward to the future, Ye Yindan said that with the gradual effect of stimulus policies, China's economy will recover quarter by quarter, and my country will maintain stable economic operation within a reasonable range in the second half of the year.
English source: China Daily
Translator & Editor: Dany
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