Trump vs Biden episode 2? How the FBI raid could speed things up

Do you think this film has a taste of deja vu? You are right. But this new viewing will be even more trying for your nerves. Brace yourself, the world may soon see 'Trump vs. Biden Episode 2' coming.

This is one of the possible consequences of the new scandal surrounding Donald Trump since this week, almost two years after his defeat in favor of the Democrat. During an FBI search at the former president's home in Florida, "top secret" documents were seized, in possible violation of a national security law.

Paradoxically, these revelations could give a boost to the former businessman by allowing him to portray himself again as a martyr.

"I already thought he was going to run before that, I'm even more convinced today," Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said on Fox News.

However, according to experts, if the former president does indeed declare himself, then it is certain that Joe Biden will do so too. Even being the oldest US president in office, at 79, the Democrat considers it his historic responsibility to rid America of Donald Trump.

Unlike 2020, the roles would be reversed this time, with Joe Biden in office, against Donald Trump as an opponent.

Given the latter's accusations over his stolen 2020 win, and his role in the attack on Capitol Hill, the rematch might not be a pretty sight.

"If you think Trump's 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns were abhorrent, you haven't seen anything yet," warned Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University.

Boost from both sides

According to political experts, the FBI raid is a game changer, and could benefit both sides.

From Joe Biden's point of view, the logic is easy to follow: Mr. Trump is entangled in numerous legal investigations, into possible attempts to influence an election or even financial fraud.

What embarrass the Republicans, and mobilize the Democratic troops, who dream more and more of a surprise victory in the legislative elections of November, where the control of Congress is called into play.

According to the Wall Street Journal editorial: Republicans "should make the midterm elections a referendum on Mr. Biden's first two years. Democrats would rather talk about Mr. Trump until November -- or even until the end of time."

But the former president also finds advantages in this latest scandal.

Once again he dominates the headlines, and can offer his base a new conspiracy theory, already circulating everywhere on right-wing social media, filled with calls for arms and civil war.

"Donald Trump has more than $100 million in his election fund. But he also has something even more valuable: an FBI investigation against him," summarizes Richard Lowry of the conservative National Review magazine. "It puts him back in the center of attention. And allows him to present himself as a beleaguered victim."

Choice versus strategy

Donald Trump's hold on his party would sweep away any potential opponent in a Republican primary.

If he wants the nomination, "I don't see how he could not have it," political analyst John Thomas told Politico. "It will be a coronation."

In the process, Joe Biden will certainly follow -- ignoring the doubts he may have privately about whether to make way for a younger personality.

"The first step is up to Trump," said Lara Brown of George Washington University. "I do think President Biden is waiting to see if Trump declares himself, and if he does, I think he will declare himself soon after."

The Democrat, who remains very unpopular and for whom the past year has been difficult, has recently recorded legislative successes, and could benefit from the anger aroused by the decisions of the Supreme Court, in particular on the constitutional right to abortion .

What maintain the optimism of some advisers on its ability to beat the Republican. “In the next election, I would be very lucky if I had the same opponent in front of me,” Joe Biden even said in March.

But voters may not really want one or the other.

In July, some 60% believed that Joe Biden should not run for 2024. The same applies to Donald Trump, for 57% of them. (What about AFP)