In which is the area with the cheapest charters? ... Daegu, Sejong and Incheon are at threat [나기자의 데이터로 세상읽기]

[나기자의 데이터로 세상읽기-14] In August there was nearly not a entire era. Nationwide, the jeonse price fell .4% this calendar year. As Jeonse, which functions as a fertilizer for hole investments, has declined, apartment gross sales charges are slowly collapsing as properly.

Which location has the major drop in jeonse flats this yr? How significantly extra will Jeonse's cost drop in the future?

① Jeonse mortgage fascination charge mounting


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▲ Acquisition of Naver's 'Bank of Korea base rate' investigate. Usually, the desire amount on the Jeonse loan is decided at the base interest fee + 1.5 ~ 2%. As the foundation curiosity fee rose 2 share factors from May perhaps past 12 months, the desire fee on the Jeonse financial loan rose to the 4% array in July.

The interest charge on the Jeonse bank loan averaged around 3.7% in May on your own (centered on 15 banking institutions and Korea Housing Finance Company). Nonetheless, in July, it amplified by .5 share details to an average of around 4.2%.

This is thanks to the increase in the base fascination amount. The base level in May was 1.75%, but rose to 2.25% in July. It is presently at 2.5% and is probable to increase to about 3% in the future. The period of the ordinary 5% Jeonse loan curiosity level is speedy approaching.

Just previous calendar year I was able to get a Jeonse financial loan at an interest price of 2% for each annum. If it rises to the 5% level, the borrower's curiosity fee will double.

Assuming that the average interest price on the Jeonse financial loan has elevated by 2.5%, the every month rental charge per 100 million gained in the financial loan is an extra 200,000 received. Nationally, Jeonse's typical financial loan was found to be around 200 million gained. If it is 200 million gained, the regular rent will raise by about 400,000 received when compared to very last calendar year (420,000 gained for every thirty day period → 830,000 received per thirty day period). In a situation where by inflation is rising, the fascination charge on the Jeonse loan will increase and the cost of housing improves immediately.

This is the national typical. Jeonse is additional costly in metropolitan regions than in non-metropolitan areas. Whilst the actual stats are not recognised, it is very possible that the regular hire increase will exceed 400,000 gained if the loan is the very same as previous calendar year. If you do not get the gains of the technique, this kind of as the fascination support on the Jeonse Bank loan for the newlyweds.

② In which area has Jeonse dropped the most this 12 months? Daegu, Sejong, Incheon


We seemed at the stats from January to July of this yr. In which location has the jeonse cost of apartments dropped the most this yr?

The top rated location was in the Jung-gu space of ​​Daegu, in which the jeonse cost index fell by a whopping -11.5%. Normally, the actual selling price fall is larger than the formal index. The exceptional region of ​​85 sq. meters for Star Course Namsan, Far East, Jung-gu, Daegu last calendar year rose to 520 million received in January previous year, but just lately traded at 300 million received. This is a reduction of more than 30%.

Dalseo-gu, Daegu, in 2nd put, and Sejong, which is rated as the region with the most the latest fall in product sales prices, and jeonse, in 3rd place. Yeonsu-gu, Incheon (4th) and Seo-gu, Incheon (6th) are areas where jeonse costs have fallen. A standard illustration is that Songdo's condominium, which has been called the "Gangnam of Incheon" and whose providing selling price has extra than doubled in the earlier two decades, has lately witnessed a simultaneous fall in sales and jeonse costs. Indeed, the 85 m² committed to Songdo The Sharp Park Avenue, recognized as the Jangjang advanced in Songdo, proper in front of the Incheon Nationwide College Station (Incheon Line 1), where by the Metropolitan Specific Railway (GTX) -B will be developed, has risen to 710 million received at the conclusion of past yr.The real transaction was recorded at 6 billion received. At this time, the jeonse for sale has dropped to the reduced finish of 500 million.

In addition, in the metropolitan area, Suwon, Gwangmyeong and Dongtan have been selected as locations with a potent drop in jeonse. All of these areas are suffering from a decline in apartment income at the similar time.

Where is the region with the lowest charters? ... Daegu, Sejong and Incheon are at risk [나기자의 데이터로 세상읽기]
In Seoul, the price tag of jeonse was -.5%, decreased than that of the overall nation (-.4%). In Yangcheon-gu, Seoul, jeonse apartment rates fell the most to -1.4%, adopted by Eunpyeong-gu, Seongbuk-gu, Seodaemun-gu and Gangseo-gu in Seoul with -.9%. In the southeastern area of ​​Seoul, the place the Gangnam 4 districts (Gangnam-gu, Seocho-gu, Songpa-gu and Gangdong-gu) belong, the rental price tag of flats fell comparatively considerably less to -.2%. In Seoul, the bank loan rate for cheonsei, which is constrained to 500 million gained, is higher in regions with low to mid-priced condominium complexes.

③ Are you seeking at the potential volume of work? Other Daegu, Incheon and Sejong are lacking ... Seoul's rental need is probably to lengthen to Gyeonggi and Incheon


부동산정보사이트인 `부동산지인` 수요입주 물량 캡쳐본. 대구 인천 세종 충남 등이 향후 아파트 공급 과잉 지역으로 분류된다. 서울 아파트는 계속 수요량 대비 부족할 예정이다.

▲ A seize duplicate of the transfer ask for from 'Real Estate People', a serious estate information and facts internet site. Daegu, Incheon, Sejong and Chungnam are labeled as locations with an oversupply of residences in the future. Seoul residences will continue on to are unsuccessful to satisfy need.

How a great deal a lot more will Jeonse fall in the future?

The actual estate acquaintance of the authentic estate information internet site analyzed the sum of profession as opposed to demand from customers by city and province. By town and province, Daegu, Incheon, Sejong and Chungnam have "excessive" apartment occupancy for three decades setting up this year. In these locations there will be a bomb provide together with a hike in the fascination fee on the Jeonse financial loan, so it is very probably that the price of a Jeonse apartment will fall even further. It is a realistic selection for tenants to pick the month to month rent somewhat than the jeonse at this time.

Apartment occupancy in Seoul is expected to proceed to be insufficient for the upcoming 3 several years. Having said that, as the offer bomb is expected to be designed in Gyeonggi and Incheon, especially Incheon, rental need in Seoul is dispersed. A short while ago, in the Gangnam spot of ​​Seoul, the price tag of jeonse is slipping by hundreds of tens of millions of gained. Considering that the jeonse alone is better than in other locations, the desire for jeonse is "distributed" since there is a enough offer of apartments in Gyeonggi and Incheon, which are alternate places, since the demand for jeonse is "distributed".

In Gyeonggi-do, the cities of Gwacheon, Seongnam, Yongin, Hwaseong, Pyeongtaek, Gwangju, Yangju, Suwon etcetera. they are anticipated to meet the surplus demand from customers for more than two years in the up coming 3 yrs. Additionally, the 3rd new metropolis is anticipated to go following 2026. (Although, of study course, it is most likely to be further delayed). In Gyeonggi-do, the new whole need for flats is all around 70,000 households per 12 months. About 320,000 homes will be stocked in sequence in the third new city by yourself. According to the government's a short while ago declared authentic estate coverage, the total of permits and permits for flats in Gyeonggi and Incheon has additional than doubled in comparison to the desire for apartments.

General, in the metropolitan location, jeonse condominium costs are expected to decrease. If there is a lot of demand shifting to Gyeonggi-do and Incheon, Seoul apartment rental prices ought to stay as secure as they are now. Jeonse costs in Daegu and Sejong are expected to fall further more.

[나현준 기자]

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