Great Barometer: the PS falls in Wallonia, the N-VA and the Belang fall in Flanders

According to the Grand Barometer Ipsos-Le Soir-RTL-Het Laatste Nieuws-VTM, the Socialist Party is the big loser in Wallonia.

Ct is the first lesson of the Ipsos-Le Soir-RTL-Het Laatste Nieuws-VTM Grand Barometer: the PS falls in Wallonia. In Brussels, the parties evolve in a pocket handkerchief. N-VA and Vlaams Belang lose feathers in Flanders.

In Wallonia, the PS in check, MR, PTB and Ecolo at a breath

With 21.4% of the voting intentions, the PS is 3.5 percentage points less than last June according to Ipsos; 4.7 points less than at the polls in May 2019; it is the only party in the south not to repeat the score achieved in the last elections. The MR regained, almost, its result of May 2019: 20.3% of the voting intentions today, it comes from 20.5% of the votes. The MR is now, at least potentially, in a position to overtake the reds in the standings.

With 18.7%, the PTB confirms its good performance and is establishing itself. Ecolo has made significant progress, reaching 16.7% of voting intentions. The CDH is satisfied with a 10% all round, not far from the score in the elections, of 10.7%. With 5.1%, Défi can dare to hope to win a federal elected representative.

In the top personalities, Sophie Wilmès is ahead of Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and Paul Magnette.

In Brussels: shoulder to shoulder

In Brussels, the Grand Barometer confirms that there are now three to fight for first place. For the PS and Ecolo, up slightly compared to June, nothing has changed since 2019: they are still neck and neck, with a small advantage to the Greens. The MR continues its rise: it records a progression for the fourth consecutive poll, exceeds its (bad) electoral score and competes with the other two formations. What to tighten even more the political field of Brussels, while the second half of the legislature opens.

Behind this trio, the PTB and Défi show a certain stability (at 15% for the extreme left, at 10% for the amaranths). As for the CDH, it plunges below the electoral threshold.

In the charts of personalities, Alexander De Croo dethrones Sophie Wilmès, Paul Magnette completes the podium.

In Flanders: decline of Vlaams Belang and NVA

What if the brown, nationalistic wave had reached its maximum height? This is the assessment, on the Flemish side, that we could draw from the last poll. Both the rhetoric of Tom Van Grieken and that of Bart De Wever seem to have dulled during the summer as the Vlaams Belang (- 2.5 points) and the N-VA (- 0.6 points) lose some feathers, all while continuing to dominate the Flemish political landscape with head and shoulders. Nevertheless, the Vlaams Belang (23.6%) still has 4.9 points of voting intentions above its score in the last elections, remaining the leading party in the north of the country, ahead of the N-VA (21.2% ), which it loses 4.3 points compared to 2019 (25.5%).

The Open VLD, the Prime Minister’s party, remains at 11.4% of voting intentions, despite its media presence. Vooruit (12.3%) lost 0.3 point. On the other hand, the CD&V is once again the third party in Flanders with 12.6% (+ 2.6 points), topping its federal coalition partners. Groen is the second winner since he progressed by 1.3 points, to 9.6%, the ecologists returning almost to their score of 2019 (9.8%).

For the Flemish favorite personalities, the podium remains unchanged with Alexander De Croo (Open VLD), ahead of Bart De Wever (N-VA) and Conner Rousseau (Vooruit).

Methodology

Ipsos survey conducted online from September 7 to 14, 2021 with 2,378 respondents, forming representative samples of Belgians aged 18 and over, with 930 in Wallonia, 1,000 in Flanders and 485 in the 19 municipalities of the Brussels-Capital Region. The maximum margin of error, for a percentage of 50% and a confidence rate of 95% is ± 3.2 in Wallonia, ± 3.1 in Flanders and ± 4.5 in Brussels.

Affiliations : ESOMAR, Consumer Understanding Belgium.

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