the 3 scenarios from now until 2027

The experts of the International Science Council have hypothesized 3 different scenarios for the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in the world until 2027

By: VirgilioNotizie | Posted on: 18-05-2022 16:12

The experts ofInternational Science Councilthe organization that brings together over 200 national and international scientific associations, have outlined 3 possible scenarios for theevolution of the Covid-19 pandemic from here until 2027.

According to the same experts, as reported by ‘Ansa’, governments “must not pretend that the crisis is over just because mortality has reduced”, since “for many citizens there will still be many years of difficulties and challenges”.

The 3 scenarios hypothesized by the International Science Council are conditioned by various unknowns, such as, for example, anti-Covid vaccination campaigns in the poorest countries and international conflicts.

The first scenario

Il first scenariothat is, the most optimistic, assumes that in the next few years the percentage of people fully vaccinated against Covid-19 increases globally from around 61% to exceed the80%.

If this were to happen, many lives could be saved and the risk of new variants appearing could be reduced.

The coronavirus would not go away, but it would become more easily manageablewith significant benefits for the mental health of citizens, for the economy and for sustainable development.

Photo source: ANSA

Medical staff struggling with the fight against Covid.

The second scenario

Il second scenario hypothesized by the experts of the International Science Council is also the one considered most probable: in this case, it is hypothesized that the myopia of many governments (unwilling to help countries in difficulty) could keep 70% il vaccination rate globally.

If this were to be the situation, the coronavirus could become endemiccon seasonal peaks capable of overwhelming hospitals in various countries and which would require “updated vaccines and the use of antiviral drugs”.

By 2027, in this way, an “exacerbation of global inequalities” could occur, with the result that the sustainable development goals set by the United Nations would risk being postponed by a decade.

The third scenario

Il third and final scenario for the evolution of Covid between now and 2027 it is the most pessimistic one: according to this hypothesis, a growth of nationalisms and populisms is expected (which would reduce the adoption of anti Covid vaccines) and of geopolitical tensions (which represent a risk for cooperation necessary to face a global challenge such as the coronavirus).

In this case, less than 60% of the world population would be fully vaccinated against Covid-19 and low-income countries would have limited access to vaccines and antivirals.

In this way, the coronavirus could largely remain uncontrolledthus determining severe relapses in different parts of the world.


Photo source: ANSA

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