Bitcoin September 2, 2022 - Worst or Best? We will know very soon

Upcoming oversold – The Bitcoin (BTC) price remains stuck in a bounded area on either side of $20,000. Nevertheless, this routine could soon come to an end, with one last major bear assault.

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Ping pong for bitcoin price

Bitcoin price rises as high as $20,441 on Bitfinex today, September 2, 2022, before falling back below $20,000. Cryptocurrency trades at $19,925 at the time of writing this article. Its price is currently recording a daily loss of 0.82%.

Analyst Matthew Hyland shared a chart, which shows that this rise above $20,400 was therefore a fake breakout for Bitcoin price.

Publication de Matthew Hyland – Source : Twitter

He also shared another chart that shows a Bitcoin “ playing ping pong in the $19,524-$20,435 area, for several days.

BTC USD in a range
Publication de Matthew Hyland – Source : Twitter

Until when will the markets be allowed to go back and forth across these support and resistance lines?

Crossing and bottom to come

On-chain data shows that the short-term realized price of Bitcoin is about to cross over and move below the long-term realized price of the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin Realized Price
Publication of Glassnode relayed by Will Clemente – Source: Twitter

Historically, this crossing is followed by an important event, and should therefore announce the return of volatility to the marketswith a likely exit from the current range.

The last such cross occurred in 2019, just before Bitcoin price plunged to a multi-year low at $3,100.

A drop in Bitcoin's short-term realized price below its long-term realized price is an indicator of an extremely oversold market.

The next crossing of these two prices could then:

  • confirm the hypotheses from a bottom yet to comewhich would therefore be below last June's low: the $16,000 scenario would in this case be more and more credible.
  • announce a bottom imminent : based moreover on the historical data of the dates of the floor prices of the previous cycles compared to their halving, the bottom of this bear market should be reached in the fourth quarter of this year.

The bulls haven't lost yet the $20,000 battlebut some indicators show that the bears could ultimately prevail, before we see the start of a sustainable bullish recovery.

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