Gold for the first time – Gold: the bubble burst

Despite a corps of buyers who went to bed and slept and saw the price of gold at $ 2,000 an ounce, there was no escape. The precious metal fell by 4.5% from the November highs due to the re-appointment of Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve System, and an echo of “rhetoric” in the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. Investors in the Fed’s newcomer will be able to curb inflation by rapidly reducing QE and soon raising federal fund rates. Investors believe that the Fed’s newcomer will be able to curb inflation by rapidly reducing QE and soon raising federal fund rates. The end of monetary stimuli is extremely unpleasant at first for the XAUUSD.

Just as SaxoBank and other companies now believe that the decline in gold prices is due to a large profit from long positions by hedge funds, the two-week insistence that the growth of the precious metal is still speculative. Well, the XAUUSD quotes can’t jump against the USD index against the 16msn high and the investor’s reluctance to increase ETFs. Yes, the real yield of US government bonds has helped gold, but Powell’s kind of term has changed a lot.

The breakeven rate on the ptiletch bond fell to it for five days in time, indicating a decline in inflation rates. Against the background of the rally of nominal deposits of US debt, their real rates are also rising, which deprives the precious metal of a trump card. According to Swissquote Bank, the buyers will continue to retreat on XAUUSD, because government bond yields have only one way up. The reason is the Fed’s death to bring divergent inflation to its knees with the help of two normalization of policy changes, which was not expected.

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This theory has a clue. HSBC believes that the long-term factors in the decline in market debt rates will remain low for a long time. These include a tightening of the population and, in addition, the debt burden of the United States, which for the first time since the kind of worlds wolves crossed 100% of GDP.

Dynamics zadluen USA

According to the American People’s Council, the 65-year-old American is growing from 17% in 2020 to 21% in 2023. The seniors are in the middle of low-risk investments and are likely to support strong demand for government bonds.

That is, of course, true. But at this stage of the economic cycle, coupled with the return of GDP to the trend and the normalization of the Fed’s monetary policy, the probability of increasing ten-year debt rates at the level of current highs by 1.75% will surely increase their return to the August bottom by 1.17%. This circumstance creates a counterweight for the tracks.

Technically speaking, the szka for the formation of the Wolf wave has regained 100%. The return of gold below USD 1,850 per ounce enabled us to create short positions with a duty of USD 1,790, which were realized with the intensity of. The fair value will rise to $ 1,788 and pivot $ 1,778 in the future, with risks continuing to peak towards $ 1,748 and $ 1,718 an ounce.

Zlato, because Graf

Author lnku: Tm Instaforex

Warning: The information in this article is for study purposes only and in this case it is not an investment recommendation.

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