Note! Sentiment that could make the market volatile next week

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) this week rose 38.4 points or 0.6% to 6,133.25. Next week, the market will pay attention to the direction of the development of the pandemic, the fate of world monetary policy, and the national palm oil moratorium.

According to records CNBC Indonesia Research Team, there are several agendas and the release of economic data that will affect the movement of the JCI in the future trading next week. First, market participants will monitor the Implementation of Level 4 Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM).

Currently, the average new Covid-19 infection case is below 10,000 per day. This means that the Covid-19 pandemic is quite under control in Indonesia. Based on data from the Ministry of Health, as of Saturday (18/09/2021), the addition of positive confirmed cases of Covid-19 was recorded at 3,385 cases, down from the addition of cases the previous day which was recorded at 3,835 cases.

Thus, the total number of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia since the beginning of the pandemic on March 1, 2020 until today has reached 4,188,529 cases. Indonesia is ranked 13th in the world, the country with the most Covid-19 sufferers.

Referring to this progress, there is hope that this Monday PPKM Level 4 will be further relaxed so as to open up opportunities to buy stocks that will benefit from the economic recovery (cyclical stocks) such as consumer, finance and property.

Second, investors will monitor the fate of the moratorium on new oil palm land clearing. President Joko Widodo on September 19, 2018 ordered a halt to the issuance of new permits for the clearing of new oil palm areas.

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So, today is the last day of the moratorium, and the government will make an announcement as soon as possible on Monday, regarding the fate of the moratorium: will it be lifted or will it continue?

The extension of the moratorium will trigger an increase in crude palm oil prices (crude palm oil/CPO) because world supply tends to stagnate while world demand improves following the reopening of economies in developed countries.

Third, the market will pay attention to the results of the Board of Governors’ Meeting of Bank Indonesia (BI) on September 21 which will end with a press conference on monetary policy in the next month. A Reuters poll estimates that the national benchmark interest rate (BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate) will be maintained at the level of 3.5%.

The market will monitor whether there will be additional policies prepared by the central bank to brake the adverse effects of the policy tapering (reduction of the supply of liquidity in the market by the central bank of the United States/US).

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